Note: I don’t follow scripts word-for-word as they can sound unnatural, but the episodes do closely follow them.<\/p>\n
Episode 3 \u2013 Yes, I\u2019ll have one portfolio and broker please<\/p>\n
This is episode 3 and today we\u2019re going to use everything we learned to create a basic portfolio. Before I begin, I just want to say a big thank you to the amazing reception this podcast has received. It\u2019s gotten 33 5 star ratings in two weeks and over 800 downloads across the world. The feedback I\u2019ve received has been incredible and I look forward to continuing this series. We are now an international podcast.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s move on to the topic!<\/p>\n
Since we\u2019re about to get a little bit edgy, I want to state here that I am not giving financial advice. I want this podcast to empower people with the knowledge and tools so they know what they want and can create it! I don\u2019t know the financial situation of my listeners so it\u2019s important to me that your knowledge will be flexible enough that you know what you want to do.\u00a0 I want to empower people will the freedom of not having to rely on others for financial advice, but knowing they can rely on themselves. And if you, the listener, do choose to rely on financial advice \u2013 it will be because of convenience and you will be able to understand your advisor. You will be able to follow along with them, ask them questions, challenge them, and make sure you\u2019re getting what you\u2019re spending your hard earned money on.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s continue on. For this episode, we will first discuss what is a portfolio, what are common principles we should keep in mind when designing a portfolio, the different types of investments that exist when designing one, and in the end we will discuss how you can choose a broker and all the things to keep in mind when choosing one.<\/p>\n
To begin, let\u2019s talk about what a portfolio is. A portfolio simply means a group of investments that we hold. It could be just one investment to thousands. In this episode we\u2019re going to talk mostly about pooled investments, specifically index funds.\u00a0 The general consensus is that a portfolio of different kinds of index funds is the best thing to do as a beginner. It\u2019s easy, less work, low fees, and studies support it\u2019s the best way for new investors to get the highest overall return.<\/p>\n
Now that we\u2019ve defined a portfolio, we have to figure out some way to measure what\u2019s good or not. After all, what good is having a portfolio if it loses us money. \u00a0In previous episodes we discussed how a return on an investment is a way to measure if it\u2019s good.\u00a0 A return is simply saying, how much\u00a0 money do I make for every dollar I put in? We measure our portfolios the same way. If I said \u00a0got 6% this year. So if I had $100,000, I made $6000.\u00a0 My portfolio is now $106,000. But there\u2019s a twist to it.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s say we had $100,000 on January 1st<\/sup> 2015. On December 31st<\/sup>, 2015 we had $106,000. So overall we made 6%. But what if the market took a terrible turn and in the first 6 months of the year, we lost 30%…so on June 1st<\/sup> 2015 our $100,000 investment was now at $70,000. How would this make you feel? This really wouldn\u2019t make me feel so good.\u00a0 Then let\u2019s say the market quickly rebounded and recovered and you ended up making $36,000 in the next six months. So overall, you came out 6% higher.<\/p>\nNow let\u2019s take another scenario. Let\u2019s say we still ended up with $106,000 by the end of the year. But when June came around, this time markets were much more tame and we made 3%. So we made $3,000 and our portfolio was $103,000 by mid-year. This time markets continued to remain team and we made another $3,000 so we ended up the year with $106,000 \u2013 or 6%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Now which of those sounds more appealing? We both ended up with the same amount of money, but in the first case markets were a massive rollercoaster. The reason most of us prefer #2, unless you got some sort of adrenaline problem going on, is because less of something we call volatility. The second case has volatility. Volatility in very simple terms, means how much something moves around.\u00a0 In our portfolio example, the first portfolio had a lot of volatility, it\u2019s value changed considerably in a short amount of time. In the second case, our portfolio was growing slow and steady, so it didn\u2019t have as many wild swings. It is said to have less volatility.<\/p>\n
So volatility is actually a super complex topic many mathematicians, financial professionals, traders, and academics spend so much time on. Because of this, We\u2019ll probably dedicate an entire episode to in the future.<\/p>\n
But the core of what I am saying is, that returns are not the only thing we care about. We also care about the volatility of those returns. We want something that gives us the most amount of return for the least amount of volatility. People often say volatility is a measure of risk. The riskiness of our portfolio is determined by the volatility.<\/p>\n
Why is that? There are a couple reasons. \u00a0First let me mention, volatility has no direction. \u00a0It can go up just as fast as it can come down. Actually, in practice you\u2019ll se in markets, that markets crash much much quicker than they go up. If you pull up a chart of the S&P, you can use the ETF called SPY. You will see gradual moves up, the quick sudden violent crashes.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s say we started with $100,000 again. And this time let\u2019s say we are in a high volatility portfolio. Our portfolio at first does very well and doubles. It has a 100% return. We now have $200,000. Now let\u2019s say, because it has such a high volatility, it goes down 80%. What is our portfolio worth now?\u00a0 It is now worth $40,000. Now let\u2019s say it goes up 100%- so it doubles. It is now worth $80k. You see, even though the price doubled twice, because it fell by 80%, it never fully recovered. It doubled, lost 80%, then doubled again. This is what volatility does.\u00a0 But what if the portfolio fell 80%, but instead of\u00a0 going up 100% for a second time. So it doubled, went down 80% then another 80%.\u00a0 That $40k you had left would now be worth $8k.<\/p>\n
So when we hear about somebody making a lot of money, we have to ask, \u201cwell how volatile was your portfolio?\u201d Because if they doubled their money in 2 weeks, it could go down more rapidly in the following 2 weeks. The goal of this podcast is to create a portfolio that maximizes our return and tries to minimize volatility.<\/p>\n
So let\u2019s move on to discuss a standard portfolio that people use to try and achieve this:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Stocks and bonds<\/strong><\/p>\nI want to begin this by going over a couple starter portfolios. Often if you google what you should do to start investing, you get all sorts of answers and long answers. You read and read read and it\u2019s frustrating because nobody gives you a straight answer. Then you come across an article that gives you a very straight answer but doesn\u2019t get into the nitty gritty. And this is where I want this podcast to be helpful for you. We\u2019re going to work backwards \u2013 we will discuss why people give you these quote, \u201crules of thumb\u201d and then get into the nitty gritty. Cool?<\/p>\n
Awesome! Let\u2019s talk stocks. Typically, stocks return between 9-10% on average a year. Government bonds return between 5-6% a year. The standard blanket financial advice is, you should be in 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Now why is that? We discussed in episode 1 how AAA bonds, are typically seen as safer. AAA is a credit rating of a country or company, it is the highest rating. Think of it like a credit score for the country or company. AAA is the highest credit score a country or company can have. Because bonds tend to be safer, they return 5-6% on average. The volatility of stocks tends to be higher than bonds though. \u00a0So notice how the returns of stocks are higher than bonds but the volatility is higher. People typically say stocks are riskier, but the market gives you more if you want to take that risk.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a general guideline of markets:\u00a0 If you are taking more risk, you should be paid more. If you are taking less risk, you should be paid less. If you are taking more risk and not being paid more, that\u2019s not a good thing.<\/p>\n
So because of these reasons, a balance between\u00a0 stocks and bonds is often recommended. Stocks and bonds do not typically move together, but they both return you money. This is a concept called positive expected value. We invest in stocks, bonds, and other things because we expect<\/strong> them to make us money. They have a positive expected value.\u00a0 But if two things don\u2019t move together, that\u2019s diversification. They both will make us money in the long run, but they may take different routes to get there. When one goes up the other may go down or stay the same. This helps stablizies things. For example if stocks drop 4% and bonds go up 2%, our portfolio is better off than if we were all in stocks.<\/p>\nOver time though, they both are expected to make us money, just taking different paths to get there. We will talk more in depth about how to measure how they move together in Episode 4 of our series.<\/p>\n
Bringing it back, what about the 60\/40 portfolio recommendation where we are 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. How does it do? First let\u2019s establish something to compare it to. Let\u2019s see how a purely stock portfolio would do.<\/p>\n
If we invested 100% of our portfolio in the S&P in 2005 and left it alone, That\u2019s ten years prior to today, what would happen? Well today, our portfolio would be up 73%. \u00a0It would be worth $173,000. What would happen in the 2008 financial crises though? Well stocks fell 45% at one point, so if we invested $100,000, in 2008 we would\u2019ve had $55,000 at one point. In 2015, we would have $173,000. That a heckuva rollercoaster!<\/p>\n
What about our 60\/40 portfolio? Well if we started it in 2005 and left it alone, it would be up 60% today. So $100,000 would be worth $160,000. What about 2008? It went down approximately 25%, so, it would have been $75,000 at one point. Compare that to a portfolio that was fully invested in stocks. Our lowest point would be $75,000 versus $55,000 for stocks. At the same time, we would end up $17k short compared to our all-stock portfolio. This is an example of the risk-reward tradeoff.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m going to ask you all to picture something, some of you did not have to witness. Imagine your portfolio was entirely stocks. Your entire retirement portfolio. Now imagine it is 2008 and you are going to retire next year. You are 64 years old and planning to live off your retirement. But now a financial crises happens, and you lost almost half of your entire retirement portfolio. How would you feel?<\/p>\n
Unfortunately this happened to a lot of people. It was a devastating event for many people nearing retirement. Not only that, jobs were harder to come by as the retirement rate skyrocketed.<\/p>\n
And this is a big issue with the 60\/40 model. It doesn\u2019t change as you change. As you approach retirement, you probably want to be in something more stable and you\u2019re willing to take less of a return because of it. You don\u2019t want to be close to retirement and potentially lose a lot of money.<\/p>\n
SO that brings me to the next rule of thumb:<\/strong><\/p>\n\u201c100 minus your age\u201d This means, you take 100, subtract your age, let\u2019s pretend you\u2019re 30, so 100 minus 30 gives us 70. That 70 represents the amount of your portfolio that should be invested in stocks. So if you are 50, that\u2019s 100 minus 50, and you should be 50% in stocks. The other portion is typically bonds. So if you\u2019re 30, 70% stocks, 30% bonds. If you\u2019re 50, the 50% stocks and 50% bonds. 100 minus your age<\/p>\n
Keep in mind, this isn\u2019t financial advice from me, I will try my best not to give advice, but this is the commonly held advice that advisors share. The reason this is preferred to the 60\/40, is that the portfolio changes are your situation changes.<\/p>\n
As you get older, you may want to take less risk.<\/p>\n
Now you may feel comfortable changing up this allocation tp whatever combination fo stocks and bonds that you like, but the reason I like this rule of thumb better, is that it encourages us to think dynamically. It gets us to question \u201chow much risk can I take?\u201d as we get older, change jobs, maybe you have kids, grandkids,\u00a0 want to start a business, anything!<\/p>\n
And I think one of the best measures I ever heard for assessing whether you\u2019re comfortable with the risk or volatility you\u2019re taking is this, \u201cAre able to sleep at night?\u201d If you\u2019re going to bed worried and the like, your portfolio is probably too volatile.<\/p>\n
I told you some statistics behind the 60\/40 allocation, but I don\u2019t know you\u2019re age so how do you know how much you would make or lose in 2008 using the \u201c100 minus age\u201d formula? Well \u00a0I created a tool at Tiingo.com so you can run the same statistics I did! You can take your current portfolio, or a theoretical portfolio \u2013 what you want to invest in, and see how it would perform if 2008, 2001, or any time period repeated itself. This in finance is called a backtest. So to use it, go to Tiingo.com , two iis, and then click portfolio at the top. From there type in the stocks or etfs that you own\u00a0 and the number of shares. Once you do that go to the top right corner where it says overview, and select backtest. The rest is self explanatory! I created some time periods for easy use just to make things easier.\u00a0 This is a tool many hedge funds may $20k\/month for more and I want to make it free for you all<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Okay so we\u2019ve discussed two different start portfolios: a 60\/40 allocation a \u201c100 minus your age\u201d allocation. So maybe you now have an idea in your head of what kind of mix of stocks and bonds\u00a0 you want. What do you actually trade to get them?<\/p>\n
Going from our previous episode on pooled investments, a lot of research and advice tells us, as newbie investors we should stick to index funds or ETFs. The reason is that it takes a lot of time, effort, and research to select a mutual fund that may<\/em> outperform. There are many kinds of ETFs out there for stocks, you will see small cap, which means smaller sized companies, to large cap. The S&P 500 is considered large cap.<\/p>\nSo sticking with a basic stock index ETF you could use SPY or VOO. Throughout this podcast you\u2019ve heard me say SPY, and one of the main reasons is that it\u2019s sort of an industry standard. It also is the most widely traded S&P ETF. But if you\u2019re looking at lowest fees, the Vanguard product VOO can\u2019t be beat. It has a management fee of .05%.<\/p>\n
For bonds, there are many different kinds of ETFs.\u00a0 A common one used in the industry is TLT, the Barclays 20+ year government bond fund. This only invests in U.S. government bonds, considered very safe. Like SPY, you may hearme say TLT as it\u2019s sort of an industry standard. But you can use something similar made by Vanguard, and that ticker is VGLT. It has a lower expense ratio than TLT. And I promise you, I\u2019m not being promoted by Vanguard. In fact, I told them about this podcast hoping for a retweet and they pretty much said \u201ccool bro.\u201d in more corporate terms. The reason is that Vanguard tends to be the industry leader in reducing fees.<\/p>\n
Of course there are many different kinds of stock and bond funds. Things like growth stock funds to value stock funds. Same with Bond ETFs. We will get into those topics later down the line.<\/p>\n
But for right now with two ETFs, VOO and VGLT, you can have a basic portfolio. \u00a0You got your stocks represented by the VOO ETF and you got your bonds represented by the VGLT ETF<\/p>\n
Ok let\u2019s go buy us some ETF!!! Oh wait\u2026we need a broker.<\/p>\n
So to choose a brok \u2013 wait let\u2019s stop for a moment and appreciate how good that transition was\u2026.k im over it. You probably aren\u2019t though, so ill pause one more second\u2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
OK cool! So now we need a broker to wrap this all up. A broker is a company that helps us execute trades to buy and sell stocks, mutual funds, index funds, ETFs, and so on. How do we choose a broker? I\u2019m not going to recommend a broker, because that\u2019s not my style and frankly \u2013 I cant. Each and every one of you has unique circumstances so one broker may be better for you than another. I want to help you\u00a0 find which broker suits your specific needs.<\/p>\n
If you are listening to this episode, chances are you are going to be looking for a discount broker or opening a brokerage account with a mutual fund company. There are two main types of brokerages, a discount broker and a full-service broker. Full service brokers typically provide all sorts of services like advising, tax planning, etc. They are also much more costly.<\/p>\n
The websites you typically hear about like TD Ameritrade, Scottrade, Tradeking, and so on are called discount brokers.\u00a0 The way these brokers work is they charge you a fee each time you buy or sell a stock, mutual fund, index fund, ETF, and so on. So you get charged both on buying and selling. Typically these fees range from $5 to $10 for stocks and $10-$50 for mutual funds.\u00a0 Here is where things can get tricky: a lot of these brokerages have partnerships or offers where they will give you discounts on specific ETFs, mutual funds, or index funds. \u00a0So you may not end up paying any commission on certain products!<\/p>\n
You can also choose to invest directly with a mutual fund company by creating an account at Vanguard, Fidelity, and the like. The benefit to these is that they typically don\u2019t charge any commission or fees on products they offer. This is nice if you know you\u2019re going to stick to a specific company\u2019s products. The downside is that if you do want to buy stocks or use another firm\u2019s ETFs or mutual funds, it can be cost you another $10-$20.<\/p>\n
So these transaction fees can be pretty significant, especially if you\u2019re just starting to invest. Let\u2019s say you had $1,000 to invest. Let\u2019s say you went to broker RoadRunner Brokerage Company (I\u2019m making this up),\u00a0 and they charged you $5 every time you bought or sold an ETF. Well that\u2019s $10 total, which is 1% of your $1000. So with $5 commissions each way, you\u2019re going to be in the hole 1%! Let\u2019s see we went to Coyote Brokerage Company and they charged $10 to buy and sell. That\u2019s $20 total which is 2% of your $1,000 initial investment! These fees can add up a lot, especially if you think you will be trading frequently. So generally, you want to evaluate how much you will be trading, which products you will be trading, and make an estimate of the fees you will be paying at each broker.<\/p>\n
There are also a few other fees you should be wary of and decide if it makes sense for you. Some brokerages charge inactivity fees, so if you don\u2019t make any trades, they apply a fee.<\/p>\n
The next thing I want to quickly discuss, is that if you go for a brokerage that isn\u2019t popular, make sure they are SIPC insured. SIPC stands for Securities Investor Protection Corporation. When you deposit money in a bank, it is insured by a federal agency known as FDIC up to $250,000. The SIPC works similarly except for two major differences. It is NOT a federal agency but is federally mandated. The second is, that the SIPC will not protect you if you lose money by trading. It will protect you though if your brokerage goes bankrupt up to $500,000 and up to $250,000 can be in cash. It will not protect you if your broker misleads you with poor financial advice that loses you money.<\/p>\n
Finally, in addition to the SIPC, each broker may get additional insurance to protect you for more than $500,000. If you fall into that category, take the time to call each broker and ask if they do. The websites can sometimes feel very confusing and almost like there are fees everywhere. Also take the time to google the broker and see if people have complaints about them.<\/p>\n
Before we conclude our bit on brokerages, I want to pre-emptively address a question you may have. The sign up process for a broker is relatively straightforward, but many people pause at the question of \u201cmargin.\u201d What is margin? Margin means you can borrow money from your broker, and then use that money to trade. You can basically take the cash in your account, double it, and use twice the money to trade. I HIGHLY HIGHLY DO NOT RECOMMEND THIS IF YOU ARE A NEW INVESTOR. IF YOU THINK YOU WILL BE TEMPTED, THAN YOU PROBABLY SHOULDN\u2019T. <\/strong>The upside to a margin account is that when you sell out of a stock, ETF, or Mutual fund, it will take 3 days for the money to hit your account so you can trade again. This is abbreviated T+3. Today + 3 days. So if I sell out of a stock on Monday, I can \u2018t trade with the proceeds of that sale until Thursday.<\/p>\nThis is because there is clearing work that needs to happen, so you will not have access to the money until it happens. If you have margin, a broker will typically let you trade with that money as soon you sell out of the stock. So instead of having to wait T+three days for the money, if you have a margin account you can sell out of your stock, ten buy another with the money same day. SO if you sell out of your stockon Monday, you can buy more on Monday<\/p>\n
Once you get your broker set up, you can transfer money and begin trading!<\/p>\n
Wow we covered a lot in this episode. To recap, we talked about\u2026A LOT. Haha. We\u2019ve made amazing progress all. In just three episodes we now have a better understanding of what\u2019s a portfolio, how we use returns in the context of volatility, two different types of portfolio allocations and their drawbacks and benefits, and how to choose a broker.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
If investing in a company was like setting up a piece of equipment, we just did the \u201cQuick start guide\u201d Get ready friends because we\u2019re about to read the entire manual\u2026except the non-english translations. That might get redundant and I don\u2019t want you confused as to why I suddenly started speaking fluent French. Actually, I don\u2019t know how to speak French so I would be confused also.<\/p>\n
So in the next episode we\u2019re going to talk about correlation and beta. These are two metrics we can use to measure diversification. Understanding these will help us trade more than just large stocks and US bonds. We\u2019re going to be breaking into more types of investments once we get these concepts down! The stocks, mutual fund, index fund, and ETF world is massive, and these metrics will help us narrow down the assets we care about!<\/p>\n
Alright all! We\u2019re awesome, you\u2019re awesome and I loved making this episode. If you have any questions for me or feedback, please E-mail me at Rishi@tiingo.com<\/a> I love hearing feedback, whether it\u2019s good or bad.\u00a0 I mean, everybody always likes compliments so you can always drop 1 or 2 in there too.<\/p>\n <\/p><\/blockquote>\n
<\/p>\n
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